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Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Heidenheim

PPG 1.06 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FSV Mainz

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.7%0-25.7%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.0%1-110.3%1-28.8%1-35.0%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.6%2-17.8%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.3%3-14.0%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.3% 53.5% 1.87 -34.0%

Draw 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.2%

Away win 40.4% 29.4% 3.40 +37.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 70.4% 1.42 -12.8%

Over 3.5 40.6% 47.6% 2.10 -14.7%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob59.7%

A 40% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2✓ 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heidenheim1.5

FSV Mainz1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HEIDENHEIM · PPG 1.06

FSV MAINZ · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.06), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Heidenheim (H) 35.3%

ODDS 1.87 · IMPLIED 53.5% EV -34.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.2%

FSV Mainz (A) 40.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heidenheim face FSV Mainz in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heidenheim a 35% chance, the draw 24% and FSV Mainz 40%, so FSV Mainz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Heidenheim and 1.7 for FSV Mainz (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heidenheim are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.25 for FSV Mainz. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +37.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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