Today / Germany - Bundesliga / Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart

Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 18:30

Bayern München

PPG 2.21 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

VfB Stuttgart

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.7%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-03.8%1-15.2%1-23.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-05.8%2-17.8%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.8%3-17.8%3-25.3%3-32.4%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-112.4%4+-28.4%4+-33.8%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.0% 81.3% 1.23 -21.3%

Draw 15.3% 15.2% 6.60 +0.6%

Away win 20.7% 10.6% 9.40 +56.8%

Over 2.5 72.0% 83.3% 1.20 -13.6%

Over 3.5 52.0% 64.5% 1.55 -19.4%

BTTS 63.1% 66.7% 1.50 -5.3%

Home O1.5 77.3% 85.5% 1.17 -9.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 33.3% 3.00 +22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 64% / xG 3.0-1.4 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.8%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–1 5.2%

#4 4–1 5.9%

#5 1–2 3.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bayern München3.0

VfB Stuttgart1.4

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BAYERN MÜNCHEN · PPG 2.21

VFB STUTTGART · PPG 1.40

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 2.21 vs 1.40 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Bayern München (H) 64.0%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -21.3%

Draw 15.3%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +0.6%

VfB Stuttgart (A) 20.7%

ODDS 9.40 · IMPLIED 10.6% EV +56.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bayern München face VfB Stuttgart in Germany - Bundesliga on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bayern München a 64% chance, the draw 15% and VfB Stuttgart 21%, so Bayern München are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Bayern München and 1.4 for VfB Stuttgart (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bayern München are averaging 2.21 points per game versus 1.40 for VfB Stuttgart. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.8%. This match finished 5-1.

Bayern München vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Germany - Bundesliga Predictions