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Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 13:30

Union Berlin

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Eintracht Frankfurt

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-15.9%0-24.1%0-31.9%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.5%1-110.5%1-27.3%1-33.4%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.2%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.9%3-15.4%3-23.8%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-13.6%4+-22.5%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 39.4% 2.54 +18.9%

Draw 23.8% 28.2% 3.55 -9.3%

Away win 29.5% 39.4% 2.54 -15.0%

Over 2.5 62.0% 61.7% 1.62 +0.4%

Over 3.5 38.8% 39.2% 2.55 -1.1%

BTTS 60.8% 66.7% 1.50 -8.8%

Home O1.5 48.9% 48.8% 2.05 +0.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 48.8% 2.05 -16.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.8%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Berlin1.8

Eintracht Frankfurt1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION BERLIN · PPG 1.36

EINTRACHT FRANKFURT · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union Berlin (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV +18.9%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.3%

Eintracht Frankfurt (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -15.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin face Eintracht Frankfurt in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Eintracht Frankfurt 30%, so Union Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Union Berlin and 1.4 for Eintracht Frankfurt (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.25 for Eintracht Frankfurt. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +14.7%. This match finished 3-3.

Union Berlin vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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