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Werder Bremen vs Dortmund Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Werder Bremen

PPG 1.19 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Dortmund

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a clear edge.

+23.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-19.7%0-210.0%0-37.0%0-4+5.9%1 1-04.6%1-19.6%1-29.9%1-36.9%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.3%2-14.7%2-24.9%2-33.4%2-4+2.9%3 3-00.8%3-11.6%3-21.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.2% 31.7% 3.15 -33.2%

Draw 24.3% 25.3% 3.95 -2.4%

Away win 61.5% 50.0% 2.00 +23.0%

Over 2.5 59.6% 72.5% 1.38 -17.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 51.3% 1.95 -28.2%

BTTS 54.6% 73.5% 1.36 -25.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob54.6%

A 62% / xG 1.0-2.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 0–2✓ 10.0%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 0–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Werder Bremen1.0

Dortmund2.1

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WERDER BREMEN · PPG 1.19

DORTMUND · PPG 1.81

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.81) vs Home AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

Werder Bremen (H) 14.2%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -33.2%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -2.4%

Dortmund (A) 61.5%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Werder Bremen face Dortmund in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Werder Bremen a 14% chance, the draw 24% and Dortmund 62%, so Dortmund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Werder Bremen and 2.1 for Dortmund (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Werder Bremen are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.81 for Dortmund. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Werder Bremen vs Dortmund Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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