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Monchengladbach vs Hoffenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Monchengladbach

PPG 1.31 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Hoffenheim

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-17.7%0-27.2%0-34.5%0-4+3.2%1 1-05.4%1-110.1%1-29.5%1-35.9%1-4+4.2%2 2-03.6%2-16.7%2-26.3%2-33.9%2-4+2.8%3 3-01.6%3-13.0%3-22.8%3-31.7%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

Draw 25.3% 22.0% 4.55 +9.1%

Away win 46.0% 62.9% 1.59 -26.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 74.1% 1.35 -17.1%

Over 3.5 39.7% 52.6% 1.90 -24.6%

BTTS 59.7% 71.4% 1.40 -16.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.3-1.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monchengladbach1.3

Hoffenheim1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MONCHENGLADBACH · PPG 1.31

HOFFENHEIM · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.31) vs Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

Monchengladbach (H) 28.7%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +17.5%

Draw 25.3%

ODDS 4.55 · IMPLIED 22.0% EV +9.1%

Hoffenheim (A) 46.0%

ODDS 1.59 · IMPLIED 62.9% EV -26.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monchengladbach face Hoffenheim in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monchengladbach a 29% chance, the draw 25% and Hoffenheim 46%, so Hoffenheim are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Monchengladbach and 1.9 for Hoffenheim (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monchengladbach are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.81 for Hoffenheim. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.5%. This match finished 4-0.

Monchengladbach vs Hoffenheim Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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