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Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Union Berlin

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

FC Augsburg

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 67% chance

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.0%0-25.1%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.5%1-111.0%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.4%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.1%3-14.6%3-23.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.6%4+-21.9%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.7% 38.8% 2.58 +2.4%

Draw 24.9% 26.7% 3.75 -4.0%

Away win 35.4% 41.3% 2.42 -14.3%

Over 2.5 59.1% 67.6% 1.48 -12.5%

Over 3.5 36.3% 45.5% 2.20 -20.1%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–0 4.7%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union Berlin1.6

FC Augsburg1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION BERLIN · PPG 1.19

FC AUGSBURG · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

67%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.19), Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Union Berlin (H) 39.7%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV +2.4%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -4.0%

FC Augsburg (A) 35.4%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union Berlin face FC Augsburg in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union Berlin a 40% chance, the draw 25% and FC Augsburg 35%, so Union Berlin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Union Berlin and 1.5 for FC Augsburg (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union Berlin are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 1.06 for FC Augsburg. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 4-0.

Union Berlin vs FC Augsburg Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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