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SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 13:30

SC Freiburg

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

W ····

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Werder Bremen

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

LAST 5

L ····

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-17.0%0-24.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.1%1-111.4%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.3%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.0%3-15.1%3-23.2%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-13.0%4+-21.9%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 52.6% 1.90 -11.8%

Draw 24.3% 27.4% 3.65 -6.8%

Away win 29.3% 27.0% 3.70 +5.1%

Over 2.5 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Over 3.5 36.3% 35.7% 2.80 +1.6%

BTTS 59.9% 61.7% 1.62 -3.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 51 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Freiburg1.6

Werder Bremen1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SC FREIBURG · PPG 1.75

WERDER BREMEN · PPG 1.02

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SC Freiburg (H) 46.4%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -11.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -6.8%

Werder Bremen (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Freiburg face Werder Bremen in Germany - Bundesliga on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Freiburg a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Werder Bremen 29%, so SC Freiburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SC Freiburg and 1.3 for Werder Bremen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Freiburg are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.02 for Werder Bremen. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 4-1.

SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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