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Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Matchday 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Leverkusen

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hamburger SV

PPG 0.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 74% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.5%0-21.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.1%1-18.2%1-24.2%1-31.4%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.6%3-23.9%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.6%4+-17.8%4+-24.0%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 79.4% 1.26 -27.4%

Draw 21.7% 15.4% 6.50 +24.6%

Away win 20.7% 12.3% 8.10 +40.6%

Over 2.5 62.6% 78.1% 1.28 -19.9%

Over 3.5 43.5% 58.8% 1.70 -26.1%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.9%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 58% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.7%

#2 1–1✓ 8.2%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leverkusen2.4

Hamburger SV1.0

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

LEVERKUSEN · PPG 1.88

HAMBURGER SV · PPG 0.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

74%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.88) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Leverkusen (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.26 · IMPLIED 79.4% EV -27.4%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +24.6%

Hamburger SV (A) 20.7%

ODDS 8.10 · IMPLIED 12.3% EV +40.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leverkusen face Hamburger SV in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leverkusen a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Hamburger SV 21%, so Leverkusen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Leverkusen and 1.0 for Hamburger SV (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leverkusen are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 0.81 for Hamburger SV. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +40.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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