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Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Regular Season - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:30

Freiburg

PPG 1.81 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RB Leipzig

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.8%0-26.1%0-33.6%0-4+2.5%1 1-05.6%1-110.0%1-29.0%1-35.4%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.1%2-17.4%2-26.7%2-34.0%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.0%3-13.7%3-23.3%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.9%4+-21.7%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 39.4% 2.54 -10.8%

Draw 23.7% 26.0% 3.85 -5.3%

Away win 41.2% 41.7% 2.40 -1.1%

Over 2.5 61.4% 70.4% 1.42 -12.8%

Over 3.5 41.5% 48.8% 2.05 -14.9%

BTTS 59.7% 72.5% 1.38 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 76%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Freiburg1.5

RB Leipzig1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FREIBURG · PPG 1.81

RB LEIPZIG · PPG 1.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.81), Away GOOD (1.69)

Win probability 1X2

Freiburg (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.54 · IMPLIED 39.4% EV -10.8%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -5.3%

RB Leipzig (A) 41.2%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -1.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Freiburg face RB Leipzig in Germany - Bundesliga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Freiburg a 35% chance, the draw 24% and RB Leipzig 41%, so RB Leipzig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Freiburg and 1.8 for RB Leipzig (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Freiburg are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.69 for RB Leipzig. This match finished 4-1.

Freiburg vs RB Leipzig Prediction— Germany - Bundesliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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