Serie C
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 116 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
42.2%
1X2
49/116
51.7%
O/U 2.5
60/116
54.3%
BTTS
63/116
56.9%
Exact score
66/116
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
31
Settled
45.2%
Hit rate
14/31
2.01
Avg odds
-13.0%
ROI
-4.0u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=11 45.5% HIT · AVG 1.92 · -11.4% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=8 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.89 · -6.5% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 2.03 · +60.6% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=4 25.0% HIT · AVG 2.15 · -57.5% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.41 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-7.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-8.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
21
Bets
52%
Hit
+1.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
6
Bets
17%
Hit
-66.7%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 11 PICKS · 6 HIT · 5 MISS
29 AUG Ferroviária vs Confiança Home -22% 1–0 HIT29 AUG Barra vs Volta Redonda Home -10% 2–0 HIT29 AUG Figueirense vs Maranhão — NO PICK 2–1 —29 AUG Floresta vs Ituano — NO PICK 2–0 —29 AUG Guarani Campinas vs Brusque Over 2.5 +18% 2–2 HIT29 AUG Caxias vs Inter De Limeira — NO PICK 0–0 —29 AUG Paysandu vs Maringá Over 2.5 +19% 0–1 MISS29 AUG AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB BTTS +3% 0–2 MISS29 AUG Anápolis vs Santa Cruz — NO PICK 1–1 —29 AUG Amazonas vs Ypiranga-RS BTTS +1% 2–2 HIT23 AUG Inter De Limeira vs Figueirense BTTS +1% 0–0 MISS23 AUG Maringá vs Barra BTTS +5% 2–1 HIT23 AUG Brusque vs Amazonas HO1.5 1–1 MISS23 AUG Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana Home +1% 4–1 HIT23 AUG Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária BTTS -3% 1–0 MISS