Serie C
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 66 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
37.9%
1X2
25/66
54.5%
O/U 2.5
36/66
54.5%
BTTS
36/66
59.1%
Exact score
39/66
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
27
Settled
40.7%
Hit rate
11/27
1.91
Avg odds
-25.7%
ROI
-7.0u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=14 42.9% HIT · AVG 1.84 · -20.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.77 · +17.2% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.87 · -38.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=3 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.41 · -100.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.45 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-7.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-8.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
12
Bets
42%
Hit
-26.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
11
Bets
36%
Hit
-31.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 7 PICKS · 3 HIT · 4 MISS
13 JUL Itabaiana vs Brusque BTTS +3% 1–0 MISS13 JUL Figueirense vs Volta Redonda — NO PICK 0–0 —12 JUL Barra FC vs Santa Cruz — NO PICK 1–2 —12 JUL Inter Limeira vs Amazonas Home -9% 1–0 HIT12 JUL Maranhao vs Ypiranga — NO PICK 2–1 —12 JUL Anapolis vs Maringa Over 2.5 +13% 0–1 MISS12 JUL Paysandu vs Guarani BTTS -10% 3–2 HIT12 JUL Ituano vs Ferroviaria — NO PICK 1–3 —12 JUL Botafogo PB vs Confianca Home -2% 2–0 HIT11 JUL Caxias vs Floresta — NO PICK 0–0 —6 JUL Brusque vs Figueirense — NO PICK 3–1 —5 JUL Ypiranga vs Paysandu BTTS -5% 1–0 MISS4 JUL Maranhao vs Inter Limeira — NO PICK 0–1 —4 JUL Maringa vs Volta Redonda BTTS -5% 4–0 MISS4 JUL Confianca vs Barra FC — NO PICK 1–2 —