Today / Brazil - Serie C / AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB

AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

AO Itabaiana

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Botafogo PB

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.7% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-113.1%0-28.5%0-33.7%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.1%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.0%2-16.5%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% 40.0% 2.50 -17.4%

Draw 27.0% 35.7% 2.80 -14.6%

Away win 44.6% 36.4% 2.75 +22.7%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.6% 2.35 +18.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.1% 4.33 +14.6%

BTTS 51.7% 50.0% 2.00 +3.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

Away O1.5 36.9% 30.8% 3.25 +19.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.7%

A 45% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.2%

#4 0–2✓ 8.5%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AO Itabaiana1.0

Botafogo PB1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AO ITABAIANA · PPG 1.00

BOTAFOGO PB · PPG 1.22

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.30, combined xG 2.29 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

AO Itabaiana (H) 28.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -17.4%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.6%

Botafogo PB (A) 44.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +22.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

AO Itabaiana face Botafogo PB in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AO Itabaiana a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Botafogo PB 45%, so Botafogo PB are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for AO Itabaiana and 1.3 for Botafogo PB (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AO Itabaiana are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Botafogo PB. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +27.8%. This match finished 0-2.

AO Itabaiana vs Botafogo PB Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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