Today / Brazil - Serie C / Maringá vs Barra

Maringá vs Barra Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Maringá

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Barra

PPG 0.89 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-15.7%0-23.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.4%1-110.5%1-26.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.7%3-15.9%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.1%4+-22.6%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.9% 59.9% 1.67 -21.7%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 28.8% 21.7% 4.60 +19.5%

Over 2.5 58.9% 48.1% 2.08 +22.5%

Over 3.5 36.6% 26.7% 3.75 +37.3%

BTTS 54.8% 52.4% 1.91 +4.7%

Home O1.5 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Away O1.5 37.3% 23.1% 4.33 +61.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.8%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 2–0 7.7%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maringá1.8

Barra1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 58.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINGÁ · PPG 1.38

BARRA · PPG 0.89

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.58 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maringá (H) 46.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -21.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

Barra (A) 28.8%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maringá face Barra in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maringá a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Barra 29%, so Maringá are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Maringá and 1.3 for Barra (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maringá are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.89 for Barra. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +61.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Maringá vs Barra Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Serie C Predictions