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Paysandu vs Maringá Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Paysandu

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Maringá

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+18.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.3%0-23.4%0-31.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-05.6%1-18.7%1-26.8%1-33.6%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.7%2-18.9%2-26.9%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-03.8%3-16.0%3-24.7%3-32.4%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-14.8%4+-23.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 48.8% 2.05 -3.5%

Draw 23.2% 31.3% 3.20 -15.5%

Away win 29.7% 33.3% 3.00 -6.5%

Over 2.5 64.2% 54.1% 1.85 +18.8%

Over 3.5 43.2% 33.3% 3.00 +29.6%

BTTS 63.1% 57.8% 1.73 +9.2%

Home O1.5 56.6% 50.0% 2.00 +13.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 36.4% 2.75 +31.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 47% / xG 2.0-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Paysandu2.0

Maringá1.6

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

PAYSANDU · PPG 1.89

MARINGÁ · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Paysandu (H) 47.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -3.5%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -15.5%

Maringá (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Paysandu face Maringá in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Paysandu a 47% chance, the draw 23% and Maringá 30%, so Paysandu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Paysandu and 1.6 for Maringá (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Paysandu are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.44 for Maringá. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +31.7%. This match finished 0-1.

Paysandu vs Maringá Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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