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Ferroviária vs Confiança Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Ferroviária

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Confiança

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.4%0-16.7%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.0%1-19.4%1-21.9%1-30.3%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-16.5%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.5%3-13.1%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 73.5% 1.36 -21.5%

Draw 26.2% 25.6% 3.90 +1.3%

Away win 16.1% 13.3% 7.50 +12.4%

Over 2.5 37.8% 46.5% 2.15 -18.7%

Over 3.5 20.7% 26.7% 3.75 -13.4%

BTTS 42.6% 43.5% 2.30 -2.0%

Home O1.5 39.8% 59.9% 1.67 -33.5%

Away O1.5 11.1% 14.3% 7.00 -13.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob42.6%

H 58% / xG 1.4-0.4 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 23.0%

#2 0–0 16.4%

#3 2–0 16.1%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviária1.4

Confiança0.4

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIÁRIA · PPG 1.89

CONFIANÇA · PPG 0.12

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.99 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviária (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV -21.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +1.3%

Confiança (A) 16.1%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +12.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviária face Confiança in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviária a 58% chance, the draw 26% and Confiança 16%, so Ferroviária are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ferroviária and 0.4 for Confiança (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviária are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 0.12 for Confiança. This match finished 1-0.

Ferroviária vs Confiança Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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