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Amazonas vs Ypiranga-RS Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Amazonas

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Ypiranga-RS

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.3%0-24.2%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.4%1-112.4%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.2%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 48.8% 2.05 -6.7%

Draw 26.2% 34.5% 2.90 -14.4%

Away win 28.3% 30.8% 3.25 -4.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.7% 52.4% 1.91 +0.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 30.9% 29.4% 3.40 +5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 12.4%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 2–1 9.2%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Amazonas1.5

Ypiranga-RS1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AMAZONAS · PPG 1.56

YPIRANGA-RS · PPG 0.88

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.49, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Amazonas (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -6.7%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.4%

Ypiranga-RS (A) 28.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Amazonas face Ypiranga-RS in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Amazonas a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Ypiranga-RS 28%, so Amazonas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Amazonas and 1.0 for Ypiranga-RS (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Amazonas are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.88 for Ypiranga-RS. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Amazonas vs Ypiranga-RS Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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