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Caxias vs Inter De Limeira Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Caxias

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Inter De Limeira

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-110.5%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.4%1-113.0%1-25.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-18.1%2-23.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.9%3-13.3%3-21.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.3%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 48.8% 2.05 -9.6%

Draw 26.9% 35.7% 2.80 -14.8%

Away win 29.0% 27.8% 3.60 +2.6%

Over 2.5 44.0% 42.6% 2.35 +3.4%

Over 3.5 23.4% 23.1% 4.33 +0.8%

BTTS 47.9% 48.8% 2.05 -1.8%

Home O1.5 34.2% 42.0% 2.38 -18.6%

Away O1.5 23.6% 23.1% 4.33 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.9%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0✓ 12.5%

#4 0–1 10.5%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Caxias1.2

Inter De Limeira0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.0% · O3.5 PROB 23.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CAXIAS · PPG 1.67

INTER DE LIMEIRA · PPG 1.78

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Caxias (H) 44.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -9.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.8%

Inter De Limeira (A) 29.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Caxias face Inter De Limeira in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Caxias a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Inter De Limeira 29%, so Caxias are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Caxias and 0.8 for Inter De Limeira (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Caxias are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.78 for Inter De Limeira. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 0-0.

Caxias vs Inter De Limeira Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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