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Inter De Limeira vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Inter De Limeira

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Figueirense

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.6%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.7%1-112.4%1-25.2%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.6%2-18.9%2-23.8%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.3%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.8% 48.8% 2.05 -4.1%

Draw 26.3% 35.7% 2.80 -15.8%

Away win 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 43.5% 2.30 +15.2%

Over 3.5 28.3% 23.1% 4.33 +13.5%

BTTS 53.0% 52.4% 1.91 +1.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 42.0% 2.38 -4.8%

Away O1.5 22.7% 28.6% 3.50 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 14.7%

#3 0–0✓ 10.2%

#4 2–0 10.6%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inter De Limeira1.4

Figueirense0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.3%

Form & verdict PPG

INTER DE LIMEIRA · PPG 1.50

FIGUEIRENSE · PPG 1.67

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Inter De Limeira (H) 46.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -4.1%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -15.8%

Figueirense (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inter De Limeira face Figueirense in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inter De Limeira a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Figueirense 27%, so Inter De Limeira are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Inter De Limeira and 0.8 for Figueirense (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inter De Limeira are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.67 for Figueirense. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 0-0.

Inter De Limeira vs Figueirense Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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