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Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:30

Maranhão

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWL

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

AO Itabaiana

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 47.9% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.0%0-110.1%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.8%1-111.7%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.0%2-16.7%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.6%3-12.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

Draw 31.3% 33.9% 2.95 -7.7%

Away win 20.8% 28.2% 3.55 -15.7%

Over 2.5 34.5% 37.0% 2.70 -6.9%

Over 3.5 18.2% 20.0% 5.00 -5.4%

BTTS 43.6% 45.5% 2.20 -4.1%

Home O1.5 30.6% 38.5% 2.60 -20.4%

Away O1.5 16.4% 25.0% 4.00 -20.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.8%

#2 0–0 18.0%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maranhão1.2

AO Itabaiana0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MARANHÃO · PPG 1.75

AO ITABAIANA · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.59 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Maranhão (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +0.6%

Draw 31.3%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -7.7%

AO Itabaiana (A) 20.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maranhão face AO Itabaiana in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maranhão a 48% chance, the draw 31% and AO Itabaiana 21%, so Maranhão are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Maranhão and 0.6 for AO Itabaiana (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maranhão are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.00 for AO Itabaiana. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +1.6%. This match finished 4-1.

Maranhão vs AO Itabaiana Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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