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Brusque vs Amazonas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Brusque

PPG 2.67 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Amazonas

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDD

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 50.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-15.3%0-22.1%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.8%1-110.1%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-14.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 55.6% 1.80 -3.7%

Draw 22.9% 34.5% 2.90 -20.2%

Away win 23.7% 22.7% 4.40 +2.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 43.5% 2.30 +24.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.1% 4.33 +36.8%

BTTS 53.0% 50.0% 2.00 +6.0%

Home O1.5 54.9% 50.0% 2.00 +9.8%

Away O1.5 22.2% 22.2% 4.50 -0.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 54% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 10.1%

#2 2–0 12.2%

#3 1–0 12.8%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brusque1.9

Amazonas0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BRUSQUE · PPG 2.67

AMAZONAS · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.12 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brusque (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -3.7%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -20.2%

Amazonas (A) 23.7%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brusque face Amazonas in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brusque a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Amazonas 24%, so Brusque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Brusque and 0.8 for Amazonas (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brusque are averaging 2.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Amazonas. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +36.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Brusque vs Amazonas Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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