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Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 18 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:30

Ypiranga-RS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWD

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ferroviária

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-19.5%0-24.8%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.7%1-112.9%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.7%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.9%3-13.9%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.9% 44.4% 2.25 +1.0%

Draw 26.3% 32.3% 3.10 -11.1%

Away win 28.7% 32.3% 3.10 -6.6%

Over 2.5 50.2% 45.5% 2.20 +10.4%

Over 3.5 28.4% 25.0% 4.00 +8.2%

BTTS 53.0% 54.6% 1.83 -3.0%

Home O1.5 37.8% 42.6% 2.35 -11.2%

Away O1.5 32.2% 33.3% 3.00 -3.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0✓ 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ypiranga-RS1.4

Ferroviária1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.4%

Form & verdict PPG

YPIRANGA-RS · PPG 2.00

FERROVIÁRIA · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 2.37 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ypiranga-RS (H) 44.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +1.0%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -11.1%

Ferroviária (A) 28.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ypiranga-RS face Ferroviária in Brazil - Serie C on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ypiranga-RS a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Ferroviária 29%, so Ypiranga-RS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ypiranga-RS and 1.0 for Ferroviária (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ypiranga-RS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Ferroviária. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Ypiranga-RS vs Ferroviária Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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