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Barra vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Barra

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Volta Redonda

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-16.9%0-22.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-018.1%1-110.8%1-23.2%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-18.4%2-22.5%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.3%3-14.3%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Draw 25.4% 33.3% 3.00 -14.3%

Away win 21.7% 20.8% 4.80 +2.5%

Over 2.5 44.4% 44.4% 2.25 -0.1%

Over 3.5 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

BTTS 47.2% 48.8% 2.05 -3.2%

Home O1.5 45.6% 45.5% 2.20 +0.3%

Away O1.5 16.7% 23.1% 4.33 -16.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 37%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.2%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.1%

#2 2–0✓ 14.1%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 1–1 10.8%

#5 0–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Barra1.6

Volta Redonda0.6

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.4% · O3.5 PROB 24.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BARRA · PPG 1.25

VOLTA REDONDA · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Barra (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -10.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -14.3%

Volta Redonda (A) 21.7%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +2.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Barra face Volta Redonda in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Barra a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Volta Redonda 22%, so Barra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Barra and 0.6 for Volta Redonda (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Barra are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.50 for Volta Redonda. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +5.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Barra vs Volta Redonda Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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