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Floresta vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Floresta

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Ituano

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-18.8%0-23.4%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.0%1-112.3%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.2%2-18.6%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-14.0%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 55.6% 1.80 -14.1%

Draw 27.8% 34.5% 2.90 -11.6%

Away win 24.5% 23.1% 4.33 +3.6%

Over 2.5 44.8% 38.2% 2.62 +17.4%

Over 3.5 25.6% 20.0% 5.00 +16.8%

BTTS 47.2% 40.0% 2.50 +18.0%

Home O1.5 40.0% 44.4% 2.25 -10.0%

Away O1.5 22.7% 20.0% 5.00 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 48% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 11.4%

#4 2–0✓ 11.2%

#5 0–1 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floresta1.4

Ituano0.8

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

FLORESTA · PPG 1.67

ITUANO · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Floresta (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -14.1%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.6%

Ituano (A) 24.5%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floresta face Ituano in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floresta a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Ituano 25%, so Floresta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Floresta and 0.8 for Ituano (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floresta are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.56 for Ituano. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +25.5%. This match finished 2-0.

Floresta vs Ituano Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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