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Guarani Campinas vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Matchday 19 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Guarani Campinas

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDLD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brusque

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6% — a clear edge.

+17.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.0%1-19.4%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.9%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.6%3-17.0%3-23.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-16.0%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.4% 64.5% 1.55 -17.2%

Draw 22.4% 29.4% 3.40 -14.3%

Away win 24.2% 20.0% 5.00 +12.6%

Over 2.5 62.0% 52.6% 1.90 +17.8%

Over 3.5 39.3% 30.8% 3.25 +27.7%

BTTS 59.9% 54.1% 1.85 +10.8%

Home O1.5 59.6% 54.6% 1.83 +9.1%

Away O1.5 32.6% 23.1% 4.33 +41.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 116 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -13.0%

Bet Hit 45%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.9%

H 53% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.5%

#4 1–2 4.9%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani Campinas2.1

Brusque1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI CAMPINAS · PPG 2.00

BRUSQUE · PPG 0.75

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.06 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Guarani Campinas (H) 53.4%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -17.2%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.3%

Brusque (A) 24.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani Campinas face Brusque in Brazil - Serie C on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani Campinas a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Brusque 24%, so Guarani Campinas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Guarani Campinas and 1.0 for Brusque (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani Campinas are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.75 for Brusque. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +41.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Guarani Campinas vs Brusque Prediction— Brazil - Serie C

Match Preview & Prediction

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