Leagues / BRAZIL / Paulista - U20
Paulista - U20
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 135 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
57.0%
1X2
77/135
59.3%
O/U 2.5
80/135
56.3%
BTTS
76/135
53.3%
Exact score
72/135
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
31
Settled
35.5%
Hit rate
11/31
1.75
Avg odds
-41.3%
ROI
-12.8u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=11 18.2% HIT · AVG 1.88 · -72.1% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=6 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.78 · -39.2% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=6 16.7% HIT · AVG 1.65 · -72.0% ROI
BTTS · N=5 80.0% HIT · AVG 1.68 · +34.6% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=3 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.54 · +2.3% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
5
Bets
40%
Hit
-29.4%
ROI
✓ Solid
8
Bets
25%
Hit
-67.9%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
18
Bets
39%
Hit
-32.8%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 9 PICKS · 5 HIT · 4 MISS
5 SEPT Sertãozinho U20 vs Ferroviária U20 — NO PICK 1–1 —4 SEPT Guarani U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 Home -1% 3–0 HIT4 SEPT Jabaquara U20 vs União Suzano U20 Home -3% 0–2 MISS4 SEPT EC São Bernardo U20 vs Bandeirante U20 Home -18% 4–1 HIT4 SEPT Itapirense U20 vs Juventus U20 AO1.5 0–5 HIT4 SEPT Porto Football U20 vs Gremio Prudente U20 — NO PICK 1–7 —4 SEPT Desportivo Brasil U20 vs São Paulo U20 — NO PICK 0–1 —4 SEPT XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Ibrachina U20 — NO PICK 0–0 —4 SEPT Portuguesa Santista U20 vs Santos U20 Away 0–1 HIT4 SEPT São Bento U20 vs Corinthians U20 Away -13% 0–0 MISS4 SEPT Sfera U20 vs Ituano U20 Home +30% 5–2 HIT4 SEPT Tanabi SP U20 vs Referencia U20 BTTS 0–2 MISS4 SEPT Velo Clube U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 — NO PICK 0–4 —4 SEPT Aguai U20 vs Santo André U20 Over 2.5 0–2 MISS4 SEPT SC Paulinense SP U20 vs Novorizontino U20 — NO PICK 1–4 —