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Itapirense U20 vs Juventus U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Itapirense U20

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLLL

UPCOMING

Juventus U20

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 69.2% vs bookmaker-implied 60.2% — a clear edge.

+14.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.7%0-24.6%0-33.8%0-4+4.2%1 1-02.6%1-16.4%1-27.9%1-36.5%1-4+7.3%2 2-02.2%2-15.5%2-26.8%2-35.6%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.3%3-13.2%3-23.9%3-33.2%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-12.0%4+-22.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.3% 20.0% 5.00 +18.9%

Draw 19.1% 25.0% 4.00 -14.2%

Away win 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Over 2.5 68.4% 58.8% 1.70 +16.3%

Over 3.5 49.4% 37.0% 2.70 +33.4%

BTTS 63.5% 58.8% 1.70 +8.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 29.2% 3.42 +70.7%

Away O1.5 69.2% 60.2% 1.66 +14.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.5%

A 55% / xG 1.7-2.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.9%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 1–3 6.5%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Itapirense U201.7

Juventus U202.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ITAPIRENSE U20 · PPG 1.80

JUVENTUS U20 · PPG 1.80

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.75 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Itapirense U20 (H) 26.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +18.9%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -14.2%

Juventus U20 (A) 54.6%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -18.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Itapirense U20 face Juventus U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Itapirense U20 a 26% chance, the draw 19% and Juventus U20 55%, so Juventus U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Itapirense U20 and 2.5 for Juventus U20 (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Itapirense U20 are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.80 for Juventus U20. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +70.7%.

Itapirense U20 vs Juventus U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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