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Guarani U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Guarani U20

PPG 3.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDW

UPCOMING

XV de Jaú U20

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.8% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-11.9%0-20.5%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.9%1-15.2%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-015.0%2-17.2%2-21.7%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-013.7%3-16.6%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-018.4%4+-18.8%4+-22.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.8% 76.9% 1.30 -2.8%

Draw 16.9% 22.2% 4.50 -14.4%

Away win 8.3% 14.3% 7.00 -25.1%

Over 2.5 60.1% 60.6% 1.65 -0.8%

Over 3.5 37.4% 40.2% 2.49 -6.9%

BTTS 48.0% 54.9% 1.82 -12.6%

Home O1.5 66.4% 70.4% 1.42 -5.7%

Away O1.5 14.0% 24.7% 4.05 -26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.0%

H 75% / xG 2.8-0.5 / O2.5 60% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 15.0%

#2 3–0 13.7%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 4–0 9.4%

#5 1–1 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani U202.8

XV de Jaú U200.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.1% · O3.5 PROB 37.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI U20 · PPG 3.00

XV DE JAÚ U20 · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.27 for Home, form 3.00 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Guarani U20 (H) 74.8%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -2.8%

Draw 16.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -14.4%

XV de Jaú U20 (A) 8.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV -25.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani U20 face XV de Jaú U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani U20 a 75% chance, the draw 17% and XV de Jaú U20 8%, so Guarani U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Guarani U20 and 0.5 for XV de Jaú U20 (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani U20 are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 0.67 for XV de Jaú U20. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +19.4%.

Guarani U20 vs XV de Jaú U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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