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Sfera U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Sfera U20

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLD

UPCOMING

Ituano U20

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 70.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+30.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-12.2%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.0%1-15.9%1-22.0%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.5%2-18.2%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.5%3-17.6%3-22.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.5%4+-110.2%4+-23.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 54.1% 1.85 +30.2%

Draw 15.9% 29.4% 3.40 -27.6%

Away win 13.7% 28.6% 3.50 -31.2%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.5% 37.0% 2.70 +9.3%

BTTS 52.4% 62.1% 1.61 -15.6%

Home O1.5 66.4% 54.3% 1.84 +22.2%

Away O1.5 18.8% 37.3% 2.68 -29.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.4%

H 70% / xG 2.8-0.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 3–0 11.5%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 1–0 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sfera U202.8

Ituano U200.7

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SFERA U20 · PPG 1.67

ITUANO U20 · PPG 0.60

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

98%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.10 for Home, form 1.67 vs 0.60 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Sfera U20 (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +30.2%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -27.6%

Ituano U20 (A) 13.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sfera U20 face Ituano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sfera U20 a 70% chance, the draw 16% and Ituano U20 14%, so Sfera U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Sfera U20 and 0.7 for Ituano U20 (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sfera U20 are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.60 for Ituano U20. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +79.8%.

Sfera U20 vs Ituano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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