Today / Brazil - Paulista - U20 / Tanabi SP U20 vs Referencia U20

Tanabi SP U20 vs Referencia U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Tanabi SP U20

PPG 1.17 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Referencia U20

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-18.7%0-24.6%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.9%1-112.5%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.6%2-19.0%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.1%3-14.3%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.1%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 29.0% — — —

Over 2.5 50.4% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 39.9% — — —

Away O1.5 32.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 2–1 9.0%

#4 0–0 8.3%

#5 2–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tanabi SP U201.4

Referencia U201.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TANABI SP U20 · PPG 1.17

REFERENCIA U20 · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

53%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tanabi SP U20 (H) 44.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Referencia U20 (A) 29.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tanabi SP U20 face Referencia U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tanabi SP U20 a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Referencia U20 29%, so Tanabi SP U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Tanabi SP U20 and 1.1 for Referencia U20 (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tanabi SP U20 are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.67 for Referencia U20. This match finished 0-2.

Tanabi SP U20 vs Referencia U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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