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Aguai U20 vs Santo André U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Aguai U20

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Santo André U20

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.6%0-18.7%0-28.1%0-35.1%0-4+3.6%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.7%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-03.3%2-16.2%2-25.8%2-33.7%2-4+2.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.5%3-22.3%3-31.5%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.6% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 56.2% — — —

Over 2.5 59.6% — — —

Over 3.5 36.4% — — —

BTTS 54.6% — — —

Home O1.5 33.0% — — —

Away O1.5 58.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.7%

#2 1–1 10.4%

#3 0–2✓ 8.1%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aguai U201.2

Santo André U201.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AGUAI U20 · PPG 0.67

SANTO ANDRÉ U20 · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

DANGER

xG gap -0.67 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Aguai U20 (H) 22.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santo André U20 (A) 56.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Aguai U20 face Santo André U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aguai U20 a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Santo André U20 56%, so Santo André U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Aguai U20 and 1.9 for Santo André U20 (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aguai U20 are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.83 for Santo André U20. This match finished 0-2.

Aguai U20 vs Santo André U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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