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São Bento U20 vs Corinthians U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

São Bento U20

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLL

UPCOMING

Corinthians U20

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-117.9%0-215.6%0-39.0%0-4+5.8%1 1-05.5%1-19.6%1-28.3%1-34.8%1-4+3.1%2 2-01.5%2-12.6%2-22.2%2-31.3%2-4+0.8%3 3-00.3%3-10.5%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.5% 10.5% 9.50 +11.3%

Draw 21.1% 21.1% 4.75 +0.1%

Away win 66.4% 80.0% 1.25 -17.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.3% 2.48 -17.3%

BTTS 48.0% 57.1% 1.75 -16.0%

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 47.9% 68.5% 1.46 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob48.0%

A 66% / xG 0.5-1.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 17.9%

#2 0–2 15.6%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 1–1 9.6%

#5 0–3 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

São Bento U200.5

Corinthians U201.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SÃO BENTO U20 · PPG 1.40

CORINTHIANS U20 · PPG 2.60

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -1.21 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

São Bento U20 (H) 12.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +11.3%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +0.1%

Corinthians U20 (A) 66.4%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

São Bento U20 face Corinthians U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives São Bento U20 a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Corinthians U20 66%, so Corinthians U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.5 for São Bento U20 and 1.7 for Corinthians U20 (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, São Bento U20 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.60 for Corinthians U20.

São Bento U20 vs Corinthians U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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