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Jabaquara U20 vs União Suzano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Jabaquara U20

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWLL

UPCOMING

União Suzano U20

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWDW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.2%0-18.1%0-22.0%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-021.3%1-110.7%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.1%2-17.1%2-21.8%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-06.2%3-13.1%3-20.8%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 52.4% 1.91 -3.2%

Draw 27.4% 29.4% 3.40 -4.1%

Away win 21.9% 29.4% 3.40 -15.3%

Over 2.5 38.8% 50.0% 2.00 -22.4%

Over 3.5 18.9% 31.3% 3.20 -23.7%

BTTS 42.4% 58.1% 1.72 -27.1%

Home O1.5 38.4% 46.7% 2.14 -17.8%

Away O1.5 14.0% 36.0% 2.78 -36.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob42.4%

H 51% / xG 1.3-0.5 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 21.3%

#2 0–0 16.2%

#3 2–0 14.1%

#4 0–1 8.1%

#5 1–1 10.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jabaquara U201.3

União Suzano U200.5

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JABAQUARA U20 · PPG 1.40

UNIÃO SUZANO U20 · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jabaquara U20 (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -3.2%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.1%

União Suzano U20 (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jabaquara U20 face União Suzano U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jabaquara U20 a 51% chance, the draw 27% and União Suzano U20 22%, so Jabaquara U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Jabaquara U20 and 0.5 for União Suzano U20 (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jabaquara U20 are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.80 for União Suzano U20.

Jabaquara U20 vs União Suzano U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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