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Sertãozinho U20 vs Ferroviária U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 13:00

Sertãozinho U20

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Ferroviária U20

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-021.6%0-115.9%0-25.8%0-31.4%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.2%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-06.9%2-15.0%2-21.9%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-01.8%3-11.3%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.3%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% — — —

Draw 32.2% — — —

Away win 29.5% — — —

Over 2.5 34.6% — — —

Over 3.5 17.3% — — —

BTTS 42.4% — — —

Home O1.5 30.8% — — —

Away O1.5 18.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 135 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 59%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -41.3%

Bet Hit 36%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 21.6%

#2 1–0 17.2%

#3 0–1 15.9%

#4 1–1✓ 12.7%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sertãozinho U200.8

Ferroviária U200.7

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 17.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SERTÃOZINHO U20 · PPG 2.00

FERROVIÁRIA U20 · PPG 1.60

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

42%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 1.53 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sertãozinho U20 (H) 38.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ferroviária U20 (A) 29.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sertãozinho U20 face Ferroviária U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sertãozinho U20 a 38% chance, the draw 32% and Ferroviária U20 30%, so Sertãozinho U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Sertãozinho U20 and 0.7 for Ferroviária U20 (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sertãozinho U20 are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Ferroviária U20. This match finished 1-1.

Sertãozinho U20 vs Ferroviária U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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