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Velo Clube U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Matchday 14 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:00

Velo Clube U20

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

UPCOMING

Botafogo SP U20

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-113.7%0-27.5%0-32.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.3%1-113.5%1-27.4%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-06.0%2-16.6%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.0%3-12.2%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.7% 34.5% 2.90 -8.1%

Draw 28.8% 30.3% 3.30 -3.0%

Away win 39.6% 46.5% 2.15 -14.9%

Over 2.5 42.7% 56.5% 1.77 -24.4%

Over 3.5 20.9% 35.3% 2.83 -24.5%

BTTS 48.0% 61.7% 1.62 -22.2%

Home O1.5 30.8% 42.0% 2.38 -26.7%

Away O1.5 33.2% 50.5% 1.98 -34.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 117 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 55%

ROI -47.8%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

D 29% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–1 13.7%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–0 12.3%

#5 0–2 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Velo Clube U201.0

Botafogo SP U201.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

VELO CLUBE U20 · PPG 1.33

BOTAFOGO SP U20 · PPG 0.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.12, combined xG 2.08 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Velo Clube U20 (H) 31.7%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.1%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.0%

Botafogo SP U20 (A) 39.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Velo Clube U20 face Botafogo SP U20 in Brazil - Paulista - U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Velo Clube U20 a 32% chance, the draw 29% and Botafogo SP U20 40%, so Botafogo SP U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Velo Clube U20 and 1.1 for Botafogo SP U20 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Velo Clube U20 are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.83 for Botafogo SP U20.

Velo Clube U20 vs Botafogo SP U20 Prediction— Brazil - Paulista - U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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