Leagues / BRAZIL / Brasileiro Women

Brasileiro Women

BRAZIL · 86 MATCHES TRACKED · 25 APR 2026 – 1 SEPT 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 85 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

51.8%

1X2

44/85

55.3%

O/U 2.5

47/85

58.8%

BTTS

50/85

54.1%

Exact score

46/85

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

25.0%

Hit rate

4/16

1.83

Avg odds

-52.5%

ROI

-8.4u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

OVER 2.5 · N=9 22.2% HIT · AVG 1.85 · -56.9% ROI

BTTS · N=7 28.6% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -46.9% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

33%

Hit

-35.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

23%

Hit

-56.5%

ROI

Match log

85 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

September 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS

1 SEPT Bahia W vs Palmeiras W BTTS -5% 1–1 HIT

August 2026 // 12 PICKS · 7 HIT · 5 MISS

31 AUG Cruzeiro W vs Corinthians W BTTS +1% 0–1 MISS 29 AUG Flamengo W vs Ferroviaria W BTTS -5% 1–0 MISS 29 AUG Gremio W vs São Paulo W — NO PICK 0–0 —22 AUG Cruzeiro W vs Palmeiras W BTTS -9% 0–0 MISS 22 AUG America Mineiro W vs RB Bragantino W Over 2.5 -7% 1–2 HIT 22 AUG Juventude W vs Bahia W Away 2–2 MISS 22 AUG Corinthians W vs Internacional RS W HO1.5 1–3 MISS 22 AUG Ferroviaria W vs Fluminense W — NO PICK 1–1 —22 AUG São Paulo W vs Mixto W Home 1–0 HIT 22 AUG Vitória BA W vs Santos W Over 2.5 1–2 HIT 22 AUG Gremio W vs Botafogo W Home 1–0 HIT 22 AUG Flamengo W vs Atlético Mineiro W BTTS +3% 4–1 HIT 16 AUG Santos W vs Flamengo W BTTS -8% 2–3 HIT 16 AUG Palmeiras W vs Juventude W Home 3–0 HIT