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Cruzeiro W vs Palmeiras W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:00

Cruzeiro W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Palmeiras W

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.5%0-25.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.5%1-112.2%1-27.8%1-33.3%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.9%2-18.7%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.3%3-14.2%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 25.0% 4.00 +63.2%

Draw 25.1% 28.6% 3.50 -7.3%

Away win 34.1% 56.5% 1.77 -39.6%

Over 2.5 53.9% 56.5% 1.77 -4.6%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.9% 2.95 -6.8%

BTTS 54.7% 59.9% 1.67 -8.6%

Home O1.5 40.0% 33.3% 3.00 +20.0%

Away O1.5 37.3% 55.6% 1.80 -32.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.7%

H 41% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.8%

#4 1–0 9.5%

#5 0–0✓ 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro W1.4

Palmeiras W1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO W · PPG 2.00

PALMEIRAS W · PPG 1.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro W (H) 40.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +63.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -7.3%

Palmeiras W (A) 34.1%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -39.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro W face Palmeiras W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro W a 41% chance, the draw 25% and Palmeiras W 34%, so Cruzeiro W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cruzeiro W and 1.3 for Palmeiras W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.71 for Palmeiras W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +47.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Cruzeiro W vs Palmeiras W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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