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Flamengo W vs Atlético Mineiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:00

Flamengo W

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atlético Mineiro W

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.5%0-22.8%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.0%1-111.2%1-24.8%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-011.2%2-19.6%2-24.2%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-06.4%3-15.5%3-22.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-13.5%4+-21.5%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 76.9% 1.30 -31.9%

Draw 24.3% 22.2% 4.50 +5.6%

Away win 23.3% 11.4% 8.75 +62.3%

Over 2.5 50.3% 58.8% 1.70 -14.5%

Over 3.5 30.3% 37.0% 2.70 -18.2%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 48.8% 70.4% 1.42 -30.7%

Away O1.5 22.8% 20.0% 5.00 +8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.0%

H 52% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 2–0 11.2%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo W1.7

Atlético Mineiro W0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.50

ATLÉTICO MINEIRO W · PPG 1.12

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.86 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo W (H) 52.4%

ODDS 1.30 · IMPLIED 76.9% EV -31.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.6%

Atlético Mineiro W (A) 23.3%

ODDS 8.75 · IMPLIED 11.4% EV +62.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo W face Atlético Mineiro W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo W a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Atlético Mineiro W 23%, so Flamengo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Flamengo W and 0.9 for Atlético Mineiro W (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo W are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.12 for Atlético Mineiro W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +48.4%. This match finished 4-1.

Flamengo W vs Atlético Mineiro W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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