Today / Brazil - Brasileiro Women / Ferroviaria W vs Fluminense W

Ferroviaria W vs Fluminense W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:00

Ferroviaria W

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDL

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Fluminense W

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-18.2%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.8%1-111.9%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-18.6%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-14.1%3-21.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 69.4% 1.44 -28.6%

Draw 26.5% 25.3% 3.95 +2.8%

Away win 24.0% 15.2% 6.60 +35.0%

Over 2.5 44.8% 55.6% 1.80 -19.4%

Over 3.5 26.0% 33.3% 3.00 -13.2%

BTTS 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 63.7% 1.57 -37.2%

Away O1.5 17.9% 22.2% 4.50 -11.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 50% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.8%

#2 1–1✓ 11.9%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ferroviaria W1.4

Fluminense W0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

FERROVIARIA W · PPG 2.25

FLUMINENSE W · PPG 1.38

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Ferroviaria W (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -28.6%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +2.8%

Fluminense W (A) 24.0%

ODDS 6.60 · IMPLIED 15.2% EV +35.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ferroviaria W face Fluminense W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ferroviaria W a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Fluminense W 24%, so Ferroviaria W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Ferroviaria W and 0.7 for Fluminense W (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ferroviaria W are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.38 for Fluminense W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +16.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Ferroviaria W vs Fluminense W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Brasileiro Women Predictions