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Santos W vs Flamengo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 16 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 14:00

Santos W

PPG 1.57 · HOME

UPCOMING

Flamengo W

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-110.0%0-25.6%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.6%1-113.0%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.5%2-18.4%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.2%3-13.6%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 40.0% 2.50 +9.0%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 29.4% 38.2% 2.62 -13.8%

Over 2.5 49.9% 50.0% 2.00 -0.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 28.2% 3.55 +1.1%

BTTS 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Home O1.5 37.9% 40.8% 2.45 -7.1%

Away O1.5 34.7% 39.2% 2.55 -11.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.9%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.1%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.6%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santos W1.3

Flamengo W1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTOS W · PPG 1.57

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.71

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.18, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Santos W (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +9.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Flamengo W (A) 29.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santos W face Flamengo W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santos W a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Flamengo W 29%, so Santos W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Santos W and 1.1 for Flamengo W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santos W are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.71 for Flamengo W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.5%.

Santos W vs Flamengo W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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