Today / Brazil - Brasileiro Women / Cruzeiro W vs Corinthians W

Cruzeiro W vs Corinthians W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Quarter-finals ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 22:15

Cruzeiro W

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Corinthians W

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.2%0-24.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.9%1-110.4%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.7%2-18.7%2-26.6%2-33.4%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.2%3-14.9%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.0%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.7% 25.0% 4.00 +62.8%

Draw 23.9% 28.6% 3.50 -9.8%

Away win 35.4% 56.5% 1.77 -37.3%

Over 2.5 60.8% 57.1% 1.75 +6.4%

Over 3.5 37.7% 34.7% 2.88 +8.6%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 49.7% 33.3% 3.00 +49.1%

Away O1.5 47.3% 56.5% 1.77 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cruzeiro W1.7

Corinthians W1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CRUZEIRO W · PPG 1.89

CORINTHIANS W · PPG 2.00

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cruzeiro W (H) 40.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV +62.8%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.8%

Corinthians W (A) 35.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -37.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cruzeiro W face Corinthians W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cruzeiro W a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Corinthians W 35%, so Cruzeiro W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Cruzeiro W and 1.5 for Corinthians W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cruzeiro W are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 2.00 for Corinthians W. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +73.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Cruzeiro W vs Corinthians W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Brasileiro Women Predictions