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Flamengo W vs Ferroviaria W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Quarter-finals ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:30

Flamengo W

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Ferroviaria W

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-17.7%0-24.2%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.9%1-112.0%1-26.6%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.4%2-25.1%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.4%3-14.9%3-22.7%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.7%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 40.0% 2.50 +19.0%

Draw 24.9% 34.7% 2.88 -17.0%

Away win 27.6% 38.2% 2.62 -16.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 46.5% 2.15 +15.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 26.7% 3.75 +18.1%

BTTS 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Home O1.5 46.1% 38.2% 2.62 +20.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 38.2% 2.62 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.3%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0✓ 10.9%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo W1.6

Ferroviaria W1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO W · PPG 1.67

FERROVIARIA W · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo W (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +19.0%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -17.0%

Ferroviaria W (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo W face Ferroviaria W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo W a 48% chance, the draw 25% and Ferroviaria W 28%, so Flamengo W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Flamengo W and 1.1 for Ferroviaria W (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo W are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.50 for Ferroviaria W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +22.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Flamengo W vs Ferroviaria W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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