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Vitória BA W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Matchday 17 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:00

Vitória BA W

PPG 0.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Santos W

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLLW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.3%0-27.3%0-34.3%0-4+2.8%1 1-06.1%1-110.7%1-29.4%1-35.5%1-4+3.6%2 2-04.0%2-17.0%2-26.1%2-33.6%2-4+2.3%3 3-01.7%3-13.0%3-22.6%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.3%4+-21.1%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.6% — — —

Draw 23.1% — — —

Away win 45.3% — — —

Over 2.5 63.1% — — —

Over 3.5 39.4% — — —

BTTS 61.3% — — —

Home O1.5 37.8% — — —

Away O1.5 48.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2✓ 9.4%

#3 2–1 7.0%

#4 0–2 7.3%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitória BA W1.3

Santos W1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.1% · O3.5 PROB 39.4%

Form & verdict PPG

VITÓRIA BA W · PPG 0.86

SANTOS W · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vitória BA W (H) 31.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Santos W (A) 45.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitória BA W face Santos W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitória BA W a 32% chance, the draw 23% and Santos W 45%, so Santos W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vitória BA W and 1.8 for Santos W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitória BA W are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 1.12 for Santos W. This match finished 1-2.

Vitória BA W vs Santos W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

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