Today / Brazil - Brasileiro Women / Bahia W vs Palmeiras W

Bahia W vs Palmeiras W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Quarter-finals ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 00:30

Bahia W

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Palmeiras W

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-110.8%0-26.6%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.7%1-113.0%1-27.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-06.4%2-17.8%2-24.8%2-31.9%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.6%3-13.1%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 21.1% 4.75 +72.4%

Draw 27.8% 28.6% 3.50 -1.6%

Away win 35.8% 60.6% 1.65 -40.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 54.1% 1.85 -6.8%

Over 3.5 28.7% 31.3% 3.20 -4.9%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 33.0% 27.8% 3.60 +18.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 57.1% 1.75 -35.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 85 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -52.5%

Bet Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.9%

H 36% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 8.9%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–1 10.8%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia W1.2

Palmeiras W1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA W · PPG 2.00

PALMEIRAS W · PPG 1.62

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.01, combined xG 2.42 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bahia W (H) 36.3%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +72.4%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.6%

Palmeiras W (A) 35.8%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -40.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia W face Palmeiras W in Brazil - Brasileiro Women on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia W a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Palmeiras W 36%, so Bahia W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bahia W and 1.2 for Palmeiras W (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia W are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.62 for Palmeiras W. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Bahia W vs Palmeiras W Prediction— Brazil - Brasileiro Women

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Brasileiro Women Predictions