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Al Ahli M. vs Al-Hidd Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:00

Al Ahli M.

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al-Hidd

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.4%0-26.8%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-011.0%1-113.2%1-27.9%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.3%2-17.6%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.4%3-12.9%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 37.0% 2.70 -2.0%

Draw 29.2% 33.3% 3.00 -7.4%

Away win 34.5% 40.0% 2.50 -13.8%

Over 2.5 46.9% 45.5% 2.20 +3.2%

Over 3.5 21.1% 25.3% 3.95 -10.0%

BTTS 52.1% 55.6% 1.80 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.1%

D 29% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 0–1✓ 11.4%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Ahli M.1.2

Al-Hidd1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

AL AHLI M. · PPG 1.00

AL-HIDD · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.00) vs Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Al Ahli M. (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -2.0%

Draw 29.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.4%

Al-Hidd (A) 34.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -13.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Ahli M. face Al-Hidd in Bahrain - Premier League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Ahli M. a 36% chance, the draw 29% and Al-Hidd 35%, so Al Ahli M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Al Ahli M. and 1.2 for Al-Hidd (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Ahli M. are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.40 for Al-Hidd. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +3.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Al Ahli M. vs Al-Hidd Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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