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Al Riffa vs Bahrain SC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Matchday 22 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Al Riffa

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Bahrain SC

PPG 0.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home 85% chance

Model probability 71.5% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-11.4%0-20.3%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-09.6%1-14.2%1-20.9%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-014.4%2-16.3%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-014.4%3-16.3%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-022.9%4+-110.0%4+-22.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 71.5% 90.9% 1.10 -21.3%

Draw 20.7% 14.7% 6.80 +24.5%

Away win 7.8% 4.3% 23.00 +47.6%

Over 2.5 63.3% 75.2% 1.33 -15.8%

Over 3.5 45.2% 55.6% 1.80 -18.6%

BTTS 45.9% 43.5% 2.30 +5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 71%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 47%

ROI 32.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob45.9%

H 72% / xG 3.0-0.4 / O2.5 63% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 14.4%

#2 2–0 14.4%

#3 4–0 10.9%

#4 1–0 9.6%

#5 5–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Riffa3.0

Bahrain SC0.4

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.3% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

AL RIFFA · PPG 2.00

BAHRAIN SC · PPG 0.10

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

85%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.00), Away POOR (0.10) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Al Riffa (H) 71.5%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -21.3%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +24.5%

Bahrain SC (A) 7.8%

ODDS 23.00 · IMPLIED 4.3% EV +47.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Riffa face Bahrain SC in Bahrain - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Riffa a 72% chance, the draw 21% and Bahrain SC 8%, so Al Riffa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Al Riffa and 0.4 for Bahrain SC (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Riffa are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.10 for Bahrain SC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.6%. This match finished 3-2.

Al Riffa vs Bahrain SC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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