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Al Najma vs Khalidiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 16:00

Al Najma

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

2 – 7

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Khalidiya

PPG 2.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 56.9% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-111.2%0-210.4%0-36.5%0-4+4.6%1 1-05.7%1-110.6%1-29.9%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.7%2-15.0%2-24.7%2-32.9%2-4+2.1%3 3-00.9%3-11.6%3-21.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.8% 12.2% 8.20 +52.2%

Draw 22.0% 23.1% 4.33 -2.8%

Away win 55.2% 75.2% 1.33 -26.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 32.4% 36.4% 2.75 -10.9%

BTTS 54.3% 51.3% 1.95 +5.9%

Home O1.5 30.9% 21.1% 4.75 +46.8%

Away O1.5 56.9% 69.0% 1.45 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 41.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-7

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob54.3%

A 55% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 0–2 10.4%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al Najma0.9

Khalidiya1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.4%

Form & verdict PPG

AL NAJMA · PPG 1.58

KHALIDIYA · PPG 2.48

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.92 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Al Najma (H) 22.8%

ODDS 8.20 · IMPLIED 12.2% EV +52.2%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -2.8%

Khalidiya (A) 55.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al Najma face Khalidiya in Bahrain - Premier League on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al Najma a 23% chance, the draw 22% and Khalidiya 55%, so Khalidiya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Al Najma and 1.9 for Khalidiya (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al Najma are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 2.48 for Khalidiya. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +59.7%. This match finished 2-7.

Al Najma vs Khalidiya Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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