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Khalidiya vs Al-Muharraq Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 21 ·Monday, May 11, 2026, 16:00

Khalidiya

PPG 2.10 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

Al-Muharraq

PPG 2.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-117.4%0-210.1%0-33.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-011.0%1-112.8%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.0%2-14.7%2-22.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.0%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.9% 41.7% 2.40 -22.7%

Draw 32.7% 33.3% 3.00 -1.9%

Away win 41.5% 35.1% 2.85 +18.3%

Over 2.5 34.7% 45.5% 2.20 -23.7%

Over 3.5 12.5% 25.3% 3.95 -30.4%

BTTS 48.1% 54.6% 1.83 -12.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.1%

A 42% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.0%

#2 0–1 17.4%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–2 10.1%

#5 1–0 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Khalidiya0.7

Al-Muharraq1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.7% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KHALIDIYA · PPG 2.10

AL-MUHARRAQ · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.10) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.60)

Win probability 1X2

Khalidiya (H) 25.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -22.7%

Draw 32.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -1.9%

Al-Muharraq (A) 41.5%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV +18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Khalidiya face Al-Muharraq in Bahrain - Premier League on Monday, May 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Khalidiya a 26% chance, the draw 33% and Al-Muharraq 42%, so Al-Muharraq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Khalidiya and 1.2 for Al-Muharraq (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Khalidiya are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 2.60 for Al-Muharraq. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +18.3%. This match finished 1-2.

Khalidiya vs Al-Muharraq Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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