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Al-Muharraq vs AAli FC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:30

Al-Muharraq

PPG 2.30 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

AAli FC

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.7%0-16.7%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-023.9%1-19.1%1-21.7%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.2%2-16.1%2-21.2%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.3%3-12.8%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 83.3% 1.20 -33.5%

Draw 29.0% 20.0% 5.00 +27.0%

Away win 15.6% 7.1% 14.00 +71.0%

Over 2.5 35.0% 59.9% 1.67 -41.5%

Over 3.5 9.8% 38.5% 2.60 -44.7%

BTTS 41.8% 44.4% 2.25 -5.9%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob41.8%

H 55% / xG 1.4-0.4 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 23.9%

#2 0–0 17.7%

#3 2–0 16.2%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Al-Muharraq1.4

AAli FC0.4

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.8%

Form & verdict PPG

AL-MUHARRAQ · PPG 2.30

AALI FC · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.30) > Away GOOD (1.70)

Win probability 1X2

Al-Muharraq (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -33.5%

Draw 29.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +27.0%

AAli FC (A) 15.6%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +71.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Al-Muharraq face AAli FC in Bahrain - Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Al-Muharraq a 55% chance, the draw 29% and AAli FC 16%, so Al-Muharraq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Al-Muharraq and 0.4 for AAli FC (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Al-Muharraq are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.70 for AAli FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +71.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Al-Muharraq vs AAli FC Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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