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Budaiya vs Al Ahli M. Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 22 ·Friday, May 15, 2026, 16:00

Budaiya

PPG 0.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Al Ahli M.

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.1% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-113.2%0-28.5%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.0%2-16.5%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 35.1% 2.85 -10.2%

Draw 29.8% 32.3% 3.10 -4.6%

Away win 41.1% 42.9% 2.33 -4.2%

Over 2.5 46.0% 48.8% 2.05 -5.7%

Over 3.5 19.5% 27.4% 3.65 -17.3%

BTTS 52.1% 56.5% 1.77 -7.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.1%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 0–2 8.5%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Budaiya1.0

Al Ahli M.1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BUDAIYA · PPG 0.60

AL AHLI M. · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.60) vs Home POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Budaiya (H) 29.1%

ODDS 2.85 · IMPLIED 35.1% EV -10.2%

Draw 29.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.6%

Al Ahli M. (A) 41.1%

ODDS 2.33 · IMPLIED 42.9% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Budaiya face Al Ahli M. in Bahrain - Premier League on Friday, May 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Budaiya a 29% chance, the draw 30% and Al Ahli M. 41%, so Al Ahli M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Budaiya and 1.3 for Al Ahli M. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Budaiya are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 1.60 for Al Ahli M.. This match finished 2-2.

Budaiya vs Al Ahli M. Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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