Today / Bahrain - Premier League / Muharraq vs Al Ahli

Muharraq vs Al Ahli Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Matchday 1 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 16:00

Muharraq

PPG 2.06 · HOME

LAST 5

D ····

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Al Ahli

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-17.4%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.9%1-111.5%1-24.2%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.3%2-19.0%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.4%3-14.6%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-12.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 69.0% 1.45 -22.4%

Draw 24.6% 25.6% 3.90 -2.4%

Away win 21.9% 15.6% 6.40 +24.1%

Over 2.5 49.6% 55.6% 1.80 -10.7%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.3% 3.00 -9.4%

BTTS 47.2% 52.6% 1.90 -10.3%

Home O1.5 45.5% 63.7% 1.57 -28.6%

Away O1.5 18.2% 23.1% 4.33 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 53%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 41.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 2–0 12.3%

#3 1–1✓ 11.5%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Muharraq1.6

Al Ahli0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MUHARRAQ · PPG 2.06

AL AHLI · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.83 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Muharraq (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.45 · IMPLIED 69.0% EV -22.4%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -2.4%

Al Ahli (A) 21.9%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV +24.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Muharraq face Al Ahli in Bahrain - Premier League on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Muharraq a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Al Ahli 22%, so Muharraq are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Muharraq and 0.7 for Al Ahli (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Muharraq are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.53 for Al Ahli. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Muharraq vs Al Ahli Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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