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Bahrain SC vs Al-Najma Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Regular Season - 21 ·Sunday, May 10, 2026, 16:00

Bahrain SC

PPG 0.60 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Al-Najma

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-113.1%0-28.4%0-33.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-010.2%1-113.1%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.1%2-16.5%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.6% 11.8% 8.50 +160.1%

Draw 28.2% 23.8% 4.20 +11.1%

Away win 41.2% 74.1% 1.35 -44.4%

Over 2.5 46.0% 57.1% 1.75 -19.5%

Over 3.5 19.8% 36.4% 2.75 -27.3%

BTTS 52.3% 51.3% 1.95 +2.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 18.6%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.3%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.2%

#3 0–1 13.1%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahrain SC1.0

Al-Najma1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.0% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHRAIN SC · PPG 0.60

AL-NAJMA · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

48%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.60), Away POOR (0.40)

Win probability 1X2

Bahrain SC (H) 30.6%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +160.1%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +11.1%

Al-Najma (A) 41.2%

ODDS 1.35 · IMPLIED 74.1% EV -44.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahrain SC face Al-Najma in Bahrain - Premier League on Sunday, May 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahrain SC a 31% chance, the draw 28% and Al-Najma 41%, so Al-Najma are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Bahrain SC and 1.3 for Al-Najma (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahrain SC are averaging 0.60 points per game versus 0.40 for Al-Najma. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +160.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Bahrain SC vs Al-Najma Prediction— Bahrain - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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